What Hollywood Needs To Learn From 2023’s Box Office

2023 is coming to a close, and that means there are 12 months of box office performances to look back on and endlessly scrutinize. By New Year’s Eve, 2023’s domestic box office haul should hit around $8.8 billion, double the $4.4 billion haul of 2021 and a little over 20% ahead of the $7.3 billion haul of 2022. Needless to say, though, that’s a massive drop-off from the yearly box office hauls of years past, coming in roughly 26% behind the $11.8 billion haul of 2018. Exempting the period of 2020-2022, it’ll also be the lowest grossing year at the domestic box office since the $8.83 billion yearly gross of 2005, when Revenge of the Sith topped the box office. Things are improving for the domestic box office in 2023, but the year is far from back to being in the pre-COVID swing of things.

The most frustrating aspect of this reality is that audiences clearly want to go back to the movies and even see a wide variety of features on the big screen, as evidenced by the biggest movies of 2023. However, the inability of major studios to properly schedule and create new theatrical releases has hindered the domestic box office from returning to its fullest potential. Those problems are only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the biggest box office takeaways of 2023. Examining those takeaways paints a picture of a domestic theatrical landscape still grappling with problems… while also demonstrating plenty of potential and passion for theatrical exhibition from the general public.

Arthouse Movies and Unorthodox Blockbusters Had a Solid 2023

Of all the trends in 2023 that were most promising, none were more reassuring than the mini comeback of arthouse titles in theaters. In 2021 and 2022, it was a challenge to launch any arthouse project that wasn’t Everything Everywhere All at Once, partially because studios kept launching titles like Belfast in hundreds of theaters right away instead of opting for more gradual theatrical rollouts. The latter release method has always been used to help stir up word-of-mouth for tinier titles, but initially, in the wake of COVID-19 altering the theatrical marketplace, studios big and small forgot about that phenomenon. Opting for more gradual rollouts in 2023, though, resulted in a much more hopping arthouse marketplace. As of this writing, seven titles that started out in limited release have cracked $10+ million domestic and a handful more (such as Poor Things) are on the way.

For comparison’s sake, only five limited release titles in 2022 exceeded $10 million, meaning that 2023 increased on 2022’s $10+ million limited release gross by nearly 40%. Impressively, 2023’s slate of arthouse titles that exceeded $10 million also isn’t far behind the 12 that cracked that threshold in 2019, though it’s currently at roughly half of the 14 limited releases that exceeded $10 million in 2018. Meanwhile, the final few months of 2023 delivered a near-weekly slew of new much-hyped arthouse titles that ensured that nearly every other week throughout November and December 2023, a new title would drop into limited release with a $25,000+ per-theater average. A steady stream of new titles got folks traveling to their local arthouse theater regularly. Plus, it helped that a bunch of these projects were aimed at younger moviegoers, a demographic largely ignored by last year’s award season slate.

‘Oppenheimer’ Put Superhero Movies to Box Office Shame

We need all kinds of titles, not just big studio blockbusters, to get the domestic box office back into prime shape. A pre-COVID sleeper hit like The Peanut Butter Falcon (a tiny title that suggests lucrative movies can come from anywhere) is just as important in many ways as a new Marvel blockbuster. 2023 didn’t suddenly bring movie theaters back to 2009 in terms of arthouse cinema box office numbers, but it was a substantial improvement over 2021 and 2022. Smaller movies on the big screen aren’t dead yet. Looking at the top ten biggest movies of 2023, meanwhile, it’s clear something is in the air. While Disney got three titles in the top ten and three of these lucrative projects were superhero movies, other box office titans were far more surprising. Who knew any video game adaptation (even one starring Mario) would become a $570+ million domestic juggernaut? Oppenheimer, meanwhile, left all other non-Batman Christopher Nolan movies in the dust at the box office despite its dark tone and unorthodox visual flourishes.

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‘Oppenheimer’ Flying Off the Shelves Is Proof Movies Need Physical Releases

Christopher Nolan’s film reinforced the value of a dwindling medium.

Then there were Barbie and The Eras Tour, which both reflected the long-standing reality that maximalist entertainment with sensibilities geared strongly towards women can make big bucks. Who knew a concert movie would outgross the newest Mission: Impossible title? Looking just outside the top ten, did anyone predict the third Creed outgrossing Fast X? Lots of franchises and pre-existing IP still ruled the domestic box office roost in 2023, but the kinds of films that stood tallest were often much different from the most lucrative motion pictures of the 2010s. Oh, and exactly half of the ten biggest movies of 2023 domestically starred women and/or people of color, a perfect encapsulation of how audiences from all walks of life (not just middle-aged white men) are the future of theatrical moviegoing.

For the first time in many years, superheroes really had a rough box office year. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse were among the biggest titles of the year, but projects like The Flash, Blue Beetle, The Marvels, and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania all flopped. Partly why these titles flopped was because of their exorbitant budgets (many of them approved before theaters fully reopened in the wake of COVID-19 closures) made sense for the 2018 box office landscape, but were no longer feasible in 2023, when not every American blockbuster makes over $200 million in China. However, a bigger problem was simply that many of these superhero yarns were multiverse stories out of step with what the public wanted in 2023. Stories setting up endless sequels and alternate dimensions just weren’t enough for moviegoers. Folks wanted standalone motion pictures that provided satisfying theatrical experiences on their own, like Barbie and Oppenheimer, not titles that required a post-credit scene to elicit an emotional reaction from people.

Disney Had a Rough Year at the Movies

If there is good news for superhero titles, it’s that two entries in the subgenre did make lots of money this year, while the box office success of Wonka and The Color Purple in the wake of a string of live-action musical bombs show that no genre is ever truly “dead” in Hollywood. You just need to make a good quality feature that doesn’t just lean on being a “new superhero movie” to make money. Meanwhile, Disney, the studio most associated with superhero cinema, had an especially rough year at the box office, with tons of flops like Wish, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, and The Haunted Mansion. The once-bulletproof studio has been struggling to return to its pre-COVID box office highs and this year especially reflected Disney’s current woes. Motion pictures reliant on product placement and fan service didn’t serve Disney well this year, and it’s time for a change.

Many of the bigger box office duds of the year, beyond just Disney misfires, suffered from exorbitant budgets. Even a title that cleared $700 million worldwide like Fast X was hampered in profitability by a massive $340 million budget. By contrast, four of the five biggest movies of the year domestically had budgets of $151 million or less! Three of them had reported price tags of just $100 million! You don’t need to break the bank to make a hit movie, yet Hollywood spent $200+ million on titles like Elemental and Transformers: Rise of the Beasts in 2023. Also impacting many of the year’s most notable duds? Sequels that nobody asked for. People were stoked to see more Creed and John Wick sequels, but nobody was asking for more Book Club, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, or more of Kenneth Branagh‘s Agatha Christie adventures. Hollywood kept on making sequels for a “safe” box office performer, but all it did was inspire audiences to demand more original stories.

‘No Hard Feelings’ and ‘Cocaine Bear’ Left Their Mark

Unfortunately, one can’t talk about the box office landscape of 2023 without mentioning the financial woes of certain comedies this year. Cocaine Bear and No Hard Feelings were solid little hits with $50+ million domestic hauls each, but projects like Strays, Joy Ride, and The Machine all flopped. However, all was not lost for this genre on the big screen this year. Bottoms turned into a sleeper hit in the final weeks of summer 2023 and provided a fine blueprint in terms of budget for the modern R-rated comedy. Make these titles for a small little $15 million or less, which can give these titles the room to make bold choices that can attract moviegoers. Something like Strays has to be super bland and iron out its weirder impulses to justify its $46 million price tag, which is just not the kind of aesthetic you want for a big-screen comedy. Make these cheap and these titles can (and need to) have a place on the big screen.

Box Office Successes Are Hard To Predict

Maybe the greatest takeaway about the 2023 box office was how it restored the financial unpredictability that always defined the theatrical landscape. With more wide releases than 2021 and 2022, 2023 had greater chances for titles to come out of nowhere and shock everyone. This was most notable in the final days of the year, when Christmas Day arrived and The Color Purple debuted to $18.1 million (one of the biggest Christmas Day openings in history), the second-biggest Christmas Day opening in history after Sherlock Holmes. The Boys in the Boat shattered expectations with $5.7 million. After weeks of entertainment publications bemoaning the lack of a big tentpole event (like Avatar: The Way of Water and Spider-Man: No Way Home) opening over Christmastime, here came The Color Purple to provide just that jolt of financial life to the box office. Meanwhile, The Boys in the Boat drastically outperformed nearly all recent sports movies at the box office. People love rowing. Who knew?

There were similar surprises scattered throughout the 2023 box office, whether it was Saltburn holding on shockingly well after its Thanksgiving opening weekend, The Wandering Earth II making $5 million domestically despite never playing in over 172 theaters in this territory, or, a Taylor Swift concert movie outgrossing Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. Major corporations would love to have tidy algorithms that remove all the chaos from releasing movies and provide security for themselves and shareholders. However, the biggest hits of 2023 showed the simple truth that none of us can predict anything. One can cling to seemingly “safe” franchises as much as you want. They can still flop like Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom while Cocaine Bear clears $63 million domestically.

‘Godzilla Minus One’ Was an Unexpected Sensation

Instead of just squeezing blood out of the stones that are eternal franchises like Fast & Furious, the 2023 box office makes it clear Hollywood needs to take chances on original films from all kinds of genres catering to different demographics. The biggest box office woes of the year came from flops like The Flash and Wish that were way too enamored with the past. Meanwhile, sleeper hits like Godzilla Minus One and Bottoms got people to come out to the theater for something unique, something fresh, something they didn’t realize they craved until they were told it existed. The moviegoing experience still holds a special place in people’s hearts. The biggest box office frames of the year (namely that fateful Barbenheimer weekend) reflected this reality.

However, the over-reliance on sequels, not to mention poorly considered scheduling that left months like August 2023 devoid of major titles, betrayed this affection from moviegoers and the box office suffered as a result. That latter element is an especially egregious problem Hollywood must fix pronto. June and July 2023 alone brought in $2.3 billion, or just over 25% of the entire yearly box office. Shoving all the biggest titles in those two months while February and September are so devoid of new releases that they fail to crack $500 million. That’s not how you get audiences back to movie theaters regularly. The highest highs of the 2023 box office were quite glorious, including a summer box office haul that cracked $4 billion. However, the lows kept the year firmly below the $9 billion annual gross threshold. All the flaws that held the year’s box office down can be corrected in the future if the film industry embraces both a greater array of theatrical films and the innate unpredictability of this business.